Max Verstappen has confirmed his commitment to Red Bull, ending Mercedes transfer speculation. Seven-time Grand Prix winner Juan Pablo Montoya now proposes a financial theory behind this decision.
Why it matters
Verstappen's choice to stay with Red Bull despite their F1 2025 struggles and 2026 regulation changes is significant. Mercedes was considered a strong contender for his services, adept at new engine rules, while Red Bull develops its own Ford engine.
Montoya's Theory: $50M Valuation Drop
Montoya suggests Verstappen's decision was driven by a financial shift, not just performance clauses.
- Market Value: He estimates Verstappen's potential salary dropped from $100 million (dominant phase) to $50 million (current struggles, 97 points behind Oscar Piastri).
- Negotiation: Montoya believes Mercedes' Toto Wolff could offer significantly less. "Toto could offer Max half what he would have needed last year," he stated.
Performance Clause vs. Reality
Rumors suggested an exit clause if Verstappen was fourth or lower by the summer break. However, he secured third place before the Hungarian Grand Prix, making the clause irrelevant.
Verstappen's Stance
Verstappen confirmed his Red Bull stay, dismissing "nice stories." He stated his focus was "talking to the team about how we can improve our performance, future ideas." He added, "for me, it’s always been quite clear that I was staying anyway."