Wolff 'superstitious' over Antonelli title chances despite 50-point lead

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff is refusing to call Kimi Antonelli the 2026 title favourite despite the rookie holding a 50-point lead at the summer break, saying his "superstitious" nature keeps him grounded with half the season remaining.

Why it matters:

Antonelli's advantage is sizeable but not decisive with 13 races left in the 23-round calendar. Wolff's caution highlights the reality that Mercedes' reliability woes and a congested front of the field mean a single DNF could rapidly reshape the standings.

The details:

• Antonelli leads Lewis Hamilton by 50 points, with George Russell nine points adrift. The Italian has taken five consecutive wins since his breakthrough victory in China.
• Wolff said it is "too early to say" if Antonelli is the favourite. "I'm superstitious," he explained. "A DNF or two can swing the championship massively, and we've not been great on reliability."
• Mercedes' W17 has been the fastest overall package this season, yet five different winners in the five races before the summer break show how tight the fight has become.
• Both Antonelli and Russell have suffered power unit retirements. Deputy principal Bradley Lord admitted extra engine components—and accompanying 10-place grid penalties—are "inevitable" this year.
• Budget cap pressures are also limiting Mercedes' flexibility. Wolff noted the team must carefully manage upgrade costs alongside engine replacement expenses and calendar logistics.

What's next:

The title battle resumes at the Dutch Grand Prix this weekend. Antonelli arrives with momentum, but Mercedes must juggle development ambitions against looming grid penalties. How the team manages those competing priorities will be critical to deciding whether the rookie can sustain his championship charge.