Why Piastri's Struggles Could Pave the Way for Hamilton's First Ferrari Podium

Lewis Hamilton could secure his inaugural Ferrari podium, potentially aided by McLaren's Oscar Piastri's recent dip in form. Piastri, who has previously been a consistent race winner and podium finisher, has openly admitted to adaptation issues with his McLaren machinery. This trend of underperformance in the last four races has seen him lose significant ground in the title fight and relinquish his championship lead.

Why it matters:

Hamilton is on the cusp of his first podium-less season in his illustrious Formula 1 career. A podium finish would not only be a significant personal milestone but also a crucial validation of his move to Ferrari and the team's ongoing development. Piastri's struggles create a window of opportunity for Hamilton to break this streak and secure a top-three finish, a feat he hasn't achieved since joining the Scuderia.

The Details:

• Piastri's Decline: Oscar Piastri has shown a clear struggle with adapting to his McLaren car in recent races. This has led to a noticeable drop in his performance, causing him to lose his championship lead.
• Hamilton's Resurgence: Despite the team's challenges, Lewis Hamilton has demonstrated strong adaptation to Ferrari's complex SF-25. His P3 qualifying performance in Mexico, ahead of both his teammate Charles Leclerc and former Mercedes teammate George Russell, highlights his growing comfort and pace with the car.
  • During the Mexican Grand Prix, Hamilton was poised for a podium finish before a 10-second penalty after battling Max Verstappen on lap 6, demonstrating his ability to contend at the front.
• Ferrari's Technical Progress: Over the past two race weekends, Ferrari has shown significant improvements in execution and setup optimization, even without major upgrades to the SF-25. The team has managed to improve between Friday and Saturday, a crucial area where they previously lagged behind rivals.
  • In Mexico, Ferrari opted for a lower, stiffer setup to gain in medium and high-speed corners, maximizing downforce from the Venturi channels, particularly suited to the smooth asphalt and thin air of Mexico City.
  • This strategic setup work led to Leclerc qualifying P2 and Hamilton P3, confirming the team's progress in balancing the car for both qualifying and race performance.
• Wet Weather Opportunities: The upcoming Brazilian Grand Prix, expected to be run in wet conditions, could play into Hamilton's strengths. He is widely regarded as one of the most talented wet-weather drivers on the grid. As a sprint weekend, it also presents additional chances where adaptation, a key Hamilton trait, will be vital.

Looking Ahead:

With four rounds remaining in the championship, Lewis Hamilton has multiple opportunities to secure his first Ferrari podium. The net improvement in extracting car performance from both the team and the driver makes a podium finish a real possibility.

• Qatar GP: Technically, the Lusail International Circuit in Qatar presents the strongest chance for Hamilton, as its layout best suits the SF-25's requirement to run stiff and low to the ground for maximum downforce.
• Other Races: Brazil's bumpy asphalt might pose challenges due to the need for a higher ride height, while Las Vegas's cool temperatures may favor Mercedes. Abu Dhabi, however, could be another strong contender, given Ferrari's historical performance on that circuit.
• Execution is Key: As Charles Leclerc emphasized, achieving a podium will require nothing short of perfection from Ferrari in terms of weekend execution. The combination of Hamilton's renewed form and Ferrari's technical strides sets the stage for a compelling final stretch of the season.
• The penultimate race of the season could represent Hamilton's last chance to score a podium during his first season in red.