Verstappen Edged by Piastri in Bahrain Test Race Simulation

In a direct comparison during Bahrain pre-season testing, Oscar Piastri's race simulation for McLaren averaged a tenth of a second per lap faster than Max Verstappen's run for Red Bull. While testing data is notoriously difficult to interpret, the head-to-head provides an intriguing early snapshot as teams finalize their preparations for the season opener.

Why it matters:

Pre-season testing lap times are the first tangible, if imperfect, indicator of a car's potential. A faster average over a race distance simulation, even with differing tire compounds, suggests McLaren may have closed the gap to the reigning champions. For Red Bull, it signals that while their car is fundamentally strong, the competition—including a resurgent Mercedes—appears closer than last year, setting the stage for a potentially tighter championship battle.

The details:

• Both Verstappen and Piastri conducted full race simulations on the penultimate day of testing, with Verstappen completing the full 57-lap Bahrain Grand Prix distance.
• They ran similar two-stop strategies, though Piastri used the harder C1 compound for his final stint versus Verstappen's C2 tire.
• Over 56 comparable laps, Piastri's average lap time was 1:38.521, compared to Verstappen's 1:38.659.
• The data table shows Piastri was particularly strong in the middle stint on C3 tires, consistently setting times in the 1:37s and even dipping into the 1:36s, while Verstappen's times in that phase were predominantly in the 1:37s.
• Crucial Caveats: Fuel loads, engine modes, and specific test programs are unknown variables. Mercedes, in particular, is believed to have significant performance in reserve, and the RB20 is still considered a top-four car with a solid foundation.

What's next:

The true competitive order will only be revealed under the lights in Bahrain for the first Grand Prix. This test comparison confirms Red Bull is in the fight but may not enjoy the massive advantage of 2023. All eyes will be on whether McLaren can translate this testing pace into a consistent weekend performance and if Mercedes unleashes its hidden potential. The data provides a compelling narrative, but the final verdict comes on Saturday and Sunday.