Formula 1's summer break traditionally kicks off the "silly season" – a period of intense speculation and confirmed driver transfers. This year, the excitement is amplified with Cadillac joining the grid in 2026, adding two new seats and expanding the field to 22 drivers.
Why it matters
The driver market for 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic in recent memory. With a new team entering and key contracts expiring, teams are strategizing to secure the best talent for the upcoming regulatory changes.
Confirmed Lineups for 2026
Several teams have already locked in their driver pairings:
- McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
- Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
- Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
- Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
- Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto
Previously, Max Verstappen's future was a major stopper in the market. Mercedes had expressed strong interest, potentially making George Russell available. However, Verstappen has now confirmed his commitment to Red Bull for 2026, shifting the focus to other key seats.
Mercedes
With Verstappen staying at Red Bull, Mercedes' lineup for next season seems clearer. George Russell's contract is nearing an extension, likely a single-year deal to maintain flexibility for a potential future pursuit of Verstappen. Rookie Kimi Antonelli is expected to be retained despite recent struggles.
Mercedes believes it will be competitive under the 2026 regulations, giving team principal Toto Wolff a strong position. Short-term deals for Russell and Antonelli would allow the team to reassess its options in a potentially more open market in 2027, especially if Lewis Hamilton's Ferrari deal expires or if Verstappen seeks another move.
Cadillac
The new Cadillac team, led by General Motors and Graeme Lowdon, will be a focal point with two open seats. While an American driver was initially desired, the team's priority is experience.
- Top Targets: Race winners Sergio Pérez (ex-Red Bull) and Valtteri Bottas (ex-Sauber) are understood to be Cadillac’s primary choices. Discussions with Bottas have been ongoing, and an announcement might come before the Dutch Grand Prix. Pérez was reportedly approached soon after his Red Bull exit.
- Alternatives: Should Cadillac miss its top targets, options include former Sauber driver Zhou Guanyu (now Ferrari reserve) and Mick Schumacher, who is actively seeking an F1 return. Daniel Ricciardo has ruled himself out, stating he is retired from motorsport.
- American Talent: IndyCar's Colton Herta is unlikely to qualify for a super licence. Formula 2 contender Jak Crawford is a possibility if he wins the championship.
Alpine
Pierre Gasly has been Alpine's sole points scorer this season, highlighting struggles with the second car. Franco Colapinto, on loan from Williams, replaced Jack Doohan but has underperformed despite significant financial backing.
Alpine executive advisor Flavio Briatore has publicly stated Colapinto needs to improve. The team has been linked with Valtteri Bottas for a mid-season move, potentially extending into 2026, which would align with Mercedes' engine supply for Alpine next year. Reserve driver Paul Aron might also get a chance. Internal sources suggest Colapinto's financial contribution might keep him in the seat regardless of performance.
Red Bull and Racing Bulls
Yuki Tsunoda's future beyond this season remains uncertain, especially with Red Bull's partnership with Honda ending. Tsunoda has struggled alongside Max Verstappen, though the Red Bull car is widely considered difficult to drive for anyone other than Verstappen.
- Tsunoda's Prospects: The departure of Christian Horner, a previous obstacle to Tsunoda's progression, and the arrival of Laurent Mekies (a big fan of Tsunoda) as team principal for Racing Bulls, could offer Tsunoda a lifeline. Mekies acknowledges the car's difficulty, suggesting development rather than just driver change.
- Junior Drivers: Arvid Lindblad, an 18-year-old F2 rookie, is on a fast track. However, Red Bull is cautious about promoting him too early. Liam Lawson, previously demoted from Red Bull, is unlikely to get another senior team opportunity. Mekies' influence might give Lawson another uninterrupted F1 season at Racing Bulls, allowing Lindblad more development time. Isack Hadjar could move up if Tsunoda is dropped, potentially partnering Lindblad at the junior team.