Mid‑season check: How our pre‑season F1 predictions stack up after three races

Three races into the 2026 season we checked the pre‑season forecasts we made after Bahrain testing. Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren still sit on the podium, Haas has vaulted into fourth and Red Bull lags in sixth. Rookie Kimi Antonelli has vaulted into the top‑three, while Max Verstappen is already off the pace.

Why it matters:

• Early‑season trends shape the championship fight and dictate development spending.
• Mis‑reading a team’s form can skew fan expectations and sponsor narratives.
• Surprises like Haas’s surge force rivals to rethink upgrades.

The details:

Constructors

• Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren hold the top three – all three analysts predicted this correctly.
• Haas jumps to fourth, out‑pacing Red Bull (sixth) and Alpine (fifth) – a clear miss in the original forecasts.
• Red Bull’s early‑season woes mean they must recover quickly if they hope to contest the podium later.

Drivers

• George Russell leads, Charles Leclerc is solidly second – both forecasts spot‑on.
• Kimi Antonelli rockets into the top‑three, a huge blind‑spot for all three pundits.
• The midfield is fluid: Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have shuffled, while Pierre Gasly, Oliver Bearman and Isack Hadjar are the stand‑out performers.

What’s next:

• Miami GP will be Red Bull’s first real test – a strong run could reshuffle the mid‑field.
• Mercedes and Ferrari must fend off McLaren’s rapid development to keep the title fight tight.
• Haas needs weight‑saving upgrades to keep momentum; another podium isn’t out of reach.