Adrian Newey Predicts 2026 F1 Pecking Order Amid Major Rule Changes

Adrian Newey, now Aston Martin's technical director, has weighed in on the potential F1 pecking order for 2026, when the sport will undergo significant changes to both power unit and chassis regulations. Despite the reset, Newey largely expects the current front-running teams to maintain their competitive edge.

Why it matters:

Formula 1 is bracing for one of its most radical regulation overhauls in years. Such changes often present an opportunity for teams to leapfrog rivals or for established giants to stumble. Newey's insights, given his unparalleled track record of adapting to rule changes and designing championship-winning cars, offer a crucial perspective on where the sport might be headed.

The Big Picture:

• Major Regulatory Shake-Up: 2026 will introduce new power unit and chassis regulations, creating a blank slate for all teams.
• Opportunity for Disruption: Historically, significant rule changes have sometimes led to a reshuffling of the grid, as seen in 2009 when Brawn GP and Red Bull emerged as frontrunners while Ferrari and McLaren struggled.
• Newey's Prediction: Speaking on the James Allen on F1 podcast, Newey stated, "Chances are that the top teams this year will be the top teams next year." He acknowledges that disruption can occur, citing 2009 as an example, but believes the established teams generally stay at the top.

Between the Lines:

Newey's prediction reflects a pragmatic view of F1's inherent competitive structure. While rule changes offer a theoretical 'reset,' top teams typically possess superior resources, infrastructure, and engineering talent that allow them to adapt more effectively and quickly than their midfield counterparts. Their experience in interpreting complex regulations and executing sophisticated designs often gives them a foundational advantage that is hard to overcome, even with radical new rules.

The Details:

• New Role, Limited Insight: Newey joined Aston Martin in March after a storied 20-year career at Red Bull, where he designed cars that won multiple titles with Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen. Despite his vast experience, he admitted to having no current insight into Aston Martin's 2026 preparations, stating, "The honest truth is, I have got no idea. Because of this reset, you don't know whether you're doing good, bad or indifferent relative to the opposition, you have no knowledge of what they're doing."
• Historical Precedent: The 2009 season is a frequently cited example of how rule changes can upend the status quo, with Brawn GP (emerging from Honda's ashes) and Red Bull capitalizing on new aerodynamic regulations.

What's next:

Teams are already heavily invested in their 2026 car designs, working in relative isolation with little knowledge of their competitors' progress. The true impact of the new regulations will only become clear when cars hit the track for pre-season testing, but Newey's experience suggests that a complete overhaul of the pecking order might be less likely than some hope.