Verstappen casts doubt on Red Bull's victory chances in Australian GP season opener

Max Verstappen has delivered a sobering assessment of Red Bull's early-season prospects, stating he does not believe the team will be fighting for victory at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix despite a smooth pre-season test. The four-time world champion praised the reliability of Red Bull's new, in-house power unit but admitted significant performance steps are still needed to challenge at the front under the sport's new technical regulations.

Why it matters:

This marks the first season of Red Bull's full independence with its own Red Bull Powertrains engine, a monumental project following the split from Honda. Verstappen's candid realism highlights the immense challenge of developing both a competitive chassis and a brand-new power unit simultaneously. His comments temper expectations and set a narrative of a team in a building phase, despite rivals already identifying them as a potential threat based on testing form.

The details:

• Verstappen expressed satisfaction with the team's operational control during testing, citing "very few problems" with the new engine and the integration of many new personnel, calling it "quite special."
• On pure performance, he was blunt: "I do think we still need to make a step to truly compete at the front... at the moment, I don’t think we will be fighting for the win."
• He suggested rival teams' surprise at Red Bull's solid test was because "they probably thought the engine would just blow up," indicating Red Bull has exceeded external reliability expectations.
• The Energy Management Challenge: Verstappen identified the 2026 car's complex energy management as a critical and circuit-dependent hurdle. He singled out Melbourne's Albert Park as particularly difficult due to its layout.
  • "Melbourne is one of the least favourable circuits... because you have very few heavy braking zones and a lot of long straights," he explained, noting it will be "more difficult there than in previous years."
• The team is spending extensive time in the simulator to optimize battery charging strategies, which Verstappen says have a "huge impact on performance."

What's next:

Verstappen confirmed the RB22 will appear in Australia largely unchanged from its Bahrain test specification, with major upgrades expected to flow throughout the season. The Australian Grand Prix will serve as the first true stress test of Red Bull's complete package—chassis and power unit—under demanding energy-recovery conditions. While not expecting to win, a strong, trouble-free points finish would represent a significant success for the new project and provide crucial data for the development race ahead.

summary: Max Verstappen tempers expectations for Red Bull's start to the 2026 F1 season, acknowledging the team's new in-house engine ran reliably in testing but lacks the performance to fight for victory in Melbourne. He highlights the extreme challenge of energy management at the Australian circuit and confirms the car will see major upgrades as the season progresses.