Red Bull's engine fate hangs in the balance

Red Bull will learn before the Italian Grand Prix whether it can secure F1 engine upgrades this season. The FIA is set to announce the findings of its second ADUO analysis as early as this week.

Why it matters:

The result dictates Red Bull's development path for 2026. If judged more than 2% behind any rival in the Monaco-Hungary window, the team gets extra dyno time and a chance to introduce a new specification. Otherwise, its hands stay tied.

The details:

• In the first ADUO period (Australia to Canada), Red Bull was deemed the benchmark engine, more than 2% ahead of all others, and was the only manufacturer barred from extra development.
• Red Bull requested a review, but sources say the FIA's opinion did not change.
• The second period covered Monaco to Hungary, with the verdict due before the Italian GP.
• If Red Bull is now more than 2% behind any rival, it could introduce an upgrade before year-end. If not, the door remains shut.
• The system only measures the internal combustion engine, not the full power unit. That's why Red Bull, despite Mercedes being widely seen as having the best overall package, was flagged as the benchmark.

What's next:

Even if Red Bull is locked out again, a final opportunity remains in the third ADUO period (Dutch GP to US GP), the last in-season window before the 2027 reset.

FIA single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis defended the system's accuracy but admitted it needs improvement. "Our measurement has proven to be very accurate," he said. "But has everything worked fine? No. We need to think about improvements." He also dismissed fears of rivals gaming the system, noting ADUO gains are not cumulative, so there's no benefit in staying behind.