Red Bull's Driver Dilemma: The Hunt for the 'Next Max Verstappen' Puts Lawson, Tsunoda at Risk

Red Bull's 2026 F1 grid is far from settled, with three of four seats yet to be confirmed. This uncertainty has led to speculation that Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda could face an exit from the Red Bull driver pool as the team aggressively searches for a talent capable of matching Max Verstappen's extraordinary standards.

Why it matters:

Red Bull's relentless pursuit of a championship-caliber driver beyond Verstappen underscores a critical strategic shift. The team is not merely seeking a 'number two' but another potential superstar, creating immense pressure on current and aspiring drivers within their extensive program. This high-stakes approach could lead to a significant reshuffle in the F1 driver market, particularly within Red Bull Racing and its sister team, Racing Bulls.

The Details:

• Driver Turnover Concern: F1 pundit Jamie Chadwick warned of potential departures for Lawson and Tsunoda, suggesting they might not meet Red Bull's stringent requirements for a future champion.
• Lawson's Short Stint: Lawson was briefly promoted to Red Bull earlier this season but was replaced by Tsunoda after just two races, highlighting the rapid nature of Red Bull's evaluations.
• Tsunoda's Struggles: Despite replacing Lawson, Tsunoda is reportedly facing his own challenges in meeting performance expectations, fueling further speculation about his long-term future.
• Isack Hadjar's Rise: Isack Hadjar, currently enjoying a strong rookie campaign, has been linked with a promotion to Red Bull for 2026. However, Chadwick cautions that success in Racing Bulls doesn't automatically translate to the demands of the main Red Bull team. She emphasized the need to see if Hadjar can perform at the required level in a top-tier car.
• Rookie Line-up for Racing Bulls?: The possibility of an all-rookie lineup for Racing Bulls in 2026 is gaining traction.
  • Formula 2 rookie Arvid Lindblad is a potential candidate, having already secured an F1 super license.
  • Irishman Alex Dunne has also attracted Red Bull's interest after leaving McLaren's junior program. Dunne needs a top-three finish in F2 this year to qualify for a super license.

Between the lines:

Chadwick suggests that Red Bull's strategy isn't about finding a 'solid across the board' driver, but rather a 'superstar' who can consistently challenge at the front. The team is not content with drivers who are merely close to Verstappen's pace but are looking for someone who can truly match or exceed it. If current drivers are not meeting this benchmark, Red Bull is prepared to continuously bring in new, younger talent.

What's next:

Red Bull's aggressive talent identification and development program will continue to heavily influence their driver decisions for 2026 and beyond. The performance of drivers like Hadjar, Lindblad, and Dunne in their respective series will be under intense scrutiny. The ultimate goal remains to find a driver who can replicate Verstappen's success, even if it means constant changes within their driver stable. This approach ensures a dynamic and highly competitive internal environment, with significant implications for the future of F1's driver landscape.