Lewis Hamilton backed for Monaco glory as Red Bull face ‘recipe for disaster’

With the Monaco Grand Prix just around the corner, a growing chorus of analysts and former drivers is backing Lewis Hamilton to take his first Monaco win since 2019, while Red Bull’s recent form on street circuits is being described as a “recipe for disaster” by insiders.

Why it matters:

Monaco is the crown jewel of the F1 calendar, a race where driver confidence and car setup often matter more than raw pace. A Hamilton victory would be a massive statement for Ferrari in 2026, while a Red Bull failure could shake up the championship fight early in the season.

The details:

• Hamilton has won Monaco three times (2008, 2016, 2019) but hasn’t stood on the top step there since his Mercedes days. Now at Ferrari, he enters the race with momentum after strong recent performances.
• Track conditions and qualifying position are critical in Monaco, and Red Bull has struggled to get its 2026 car into the optimal window on tight, bumpy circuits.
• Recurring issues: Reports suggest the RB22’s front-end grip has been inconsistent in low-speed corners, a major liability around Monaco’s hairpin and swimming pool section.
• The ‘recipe’: Red Bull team principal Christian Horner has acknowledged that any minor mistake in setup or strategy could be catastrophic in Monte Carlo, echoing the team’s 2024 Monaco weekend where both cars failed to reach Q3.

The big picture:

Monaco often acts as a reset point in the championship. If Hamilton can capitalise and Red Bull falters, it could tighten the title fight. Conversely, a strong Red Bull showing would silence critics and reinforce their dominance.

What’s next:

The 2026 Monaco GP takes place on June 7, with qualifying on Saturday deciding the grid. All eyes will be on Hamilton’s lap and Red Bull’s ability to solve their street-circuit puzzle.

• Ferrari has brought a special low-downforce rear wing specifically for Monaco, signalling their commitment to Hamilton’s charge.
• Red Bull is rumoured to be trialling a revised suspension geometry during free practice to address the corner-entry woes.

The stage is set for a classic Monaco weekend.