Hamilton's Ferrari Switch a 'Mistake' if 2026 Was the Goal, Says Ex-Strategist

Ex-F1 strategist Bernie Collins has suggested that Lewis Hamilton's blockbuster move to Ferrari may have been a strategic mistake, particularly if the seven-time champion's primary focus was the 2026 regulation reset. Collins argues that Hamilton might have been better positioned for success by remaining at Mercedes, whose power unit is widely tipped to be the benchmark for the new era. While acknowledging the powerful "little kid lure" of driving for the Scuderia, she questions the decision from a purely competitive standpoint.

Why it matters:

Hamilton's shock switch from Mercedes to Ferrari was one of the biggest stories in recent F1 history, representing a final, audacious gamble in the twilight of his legendary career. Collins' perspective adds a layer of strategic critique, suggesting the emotional pull of the red car may have overshadowed a more calculated path to potential victory. The debate underscores the immense uncertainty and high stakes surrounding the 2026 technical overhaul, where a single decision could define a driver's final chapter.

The details:

• Hamilton endured a difficult debut season with Ferrari, failing to secure a single podium finish—the first time in his illustrious career he has finished a year without a top-three result.
• Collins stated that if Hamilton's decision was "with one eye on 2026," then "staying in the Mercedes gig would have been the place to stay."
• Paddock speculation increasingly points towards Mercedes developing the class-leading power unit for the 2026 regulations, potentially giving any Mercedes-powered team a significant advantage.
• She highlighted that teams are always trying to "sell you something" during negotiations, but the future performance of a car is never guaranteed until it hits the track.
• Despite her strategic reservations, Collins conceded she understands the appeal, calling it the little kid lure of the red Ferrari—a dream that captivated fans and the driver himself.

Looking Ahead:

The ultimate verdict on Hamilton's decision won't be known until the 2026 cars hit the track. While Collins' logic is sound based on current rumors, Ferrari is pouring immense resources into its own 2026 project. If the Scuderia can produce a competitive package, Hamilton's gamble will be hailed as a masterstroke. However, if Mercedes does indeed have a significant advantage, this move will be remembered as a rare strategic misstep in an otherwise impeccable career.