F1 Testing Reveals Early Competitive Hierarchy in Bahrain

Analysis of race simulations from the first pre-season test in Bahrain suggests a clear performance gap is forming between the expected top teams and the midfield, with Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren showing strong long-run pace. Despite persistent timing system outages that hampered data collection, the runs from key drivers provide an early, if incomplete, picture of the 2026 pecking order.

Why it matters:

Pre-season testing data, especially race simulations, offers the first real glimpse of a car's true performance and reliability under race conditions. While lap times are always shrouded in mystery due to fuel loads and engine modes, consistent long-run pace is a critical indicator of a team's winter development success and its potential for the opening races.

The Details:

Race simulations from expected frontrunners were captured, revealing telling patterns.

• Mercedes & Ferrari Lead: The race runs from Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) and Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) were closely matched and set the benchmark. Hamilton started his first soft-tyre stint faster, but Antonelli's pace caught up by the stint's end.
• McLaren Slightly Adrift: Oscar Piastri's run for McLaren, conducted around the same time, appeared "a considerable step behind" the Ferrari and Mercedes, a assessment corroborated by McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella. This pattern was reportedly consistent with runs from teammates Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris the previous day.
• Midfield Battle: Behind the top three, Haas currently appears to be the 'best of the rest,' followed by a spread of teams including Alpine, Williams, and Cadillac. The data indicates a significant gap between the top teams and this midfield group.
• Incomplete Data: Critical data is missing due to timing failures. Antonelli's promising second stint on hard tires was cut short in the logs, and full simulations from Red Bull and Aston Martin were conspicuously absent, with Red Bull only showing shorter stints in the 1m38s range.

By the numbers:

A snapshot of cumulative race time after approximately 28 laps (using only two tire sets) highlights the early gaps:

• Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes): 46m24.611s (Benchmark)
• Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari): +7.484s
• Oscar Piastri (McLaren): +18.038s
• George Russell (Mercedes - morning run): +21.406s
• Franco Colapinto (Alpine): +1m02.548s
• Alex Albon (Williams): +1m25.047s
• Sergio Perez (Cadillac): +1m26.208s

What's next:

With three more days of testing remaining, teams will focus on understanding these long-run trends, optimizing tire management, and solving any reliability gremlins. The final test days are crucial for confirming this early hierarchy and for midfield teams like Haas and Alpine to solidify their positions before the season opener in Bahrain.