F1 2024 Season: Final Five Rounds Power Rankings and Predictions

Oscar Piastri's lead in the Formula 1 World Championship looks increasingly vulnerable after a challenging United States Grand Prix. He now faces intense pressure not only from McLaren teammate Lando Norris but also from a surging Max Verstappen.

Why it matters:

As the 2024 F1 season enters its final five rounds, the championship fight is heating up. Predicting which teams and drivers will perform strongly at each circuit is crucial for understanding the potential outcomes. Each track presents unique challenges that can dramatically shift the competitive order, making the closing races a thrilling prospect for fans and a high-stakes battle for the teams.

The Details:

• Mexico City Grand Prix: This high-altitude circuit, characterized by bumps, thin air, and long straights, typically favors Red Bull due to their RB21's stable downforce at higher ride heights. McLaren's MCL39, which excels in fast corners, may struggle here. Ferrari's SF-25 might face difficulties on bumpy sections, despite a strong performance last season.
  • Pirelli is introducing a new harder compound (C1 replaces C2), aiming for two-stop strategies. However, the improved thermal degradation of this year's tires could lead teams to favor a one-stop medium-soft strategy, similar to Austin.
• Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos): Interlagos demands a compromise setup due to its mix of fast and twisty sectors. While McLaren's aero-efficient MCL39 should theoretically thrive, particularly in the downhill sections and final sector, Red Bull's improved performance on higher-downforce tracks makes them a strong contender. Mercedes might have an edge over Ferrari due to the SF-25's sensitivity to bumps.
• Las Vegas Grand Prix: A low-downforce track dominated by straights, Las Vegas didn't suit McLaren last year, and this trend is expected to continue. The colder ambient temperatures, although slightly less extreme this year, typically benefit Mercedes. Ferrari, with its strengths on smooth surfaces and straights, could perform well. Red Bull's RB21, especially with its recent aerodynamic developments and ability to achieve lower ride heights, positions Verstappen as a potential favorite.
• Qatar Grand Prix: The Losail circuit, designed for motorcycles, is a fast, flowing layout requiring moderately high downforce. Despite being a night race, heat remains a factor. This circuit theoretically suits McLaren, although they underperformed in the main race last year. Ferrari could also be competitive here, as the corners mostly have a linear radius, mitigating the SF-25's issues with fast changes of direction.
• Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Yas Marina): Dominated by straights and fast corners, Yas Marina rewards aerodynamic efficiency. While historically a McLaren-favored track, recent developments suggest Verstappen and Red Bull will be highly competitive. Ferrari is also expected to be in the mix, potentially disrupting the battle for pole position, as track position is notoriously difficult to overturn here.

The Big Picture:

Each of the remaining five circuits presents a unique set of challenges that will test the strengths and weaknesses of the top teams. Red Bull, with Max Verstappen, appears to be gaining momentum, especially with recent aerodynamic developments adapting their car to various track types. McLaren's performance will depend heavily on the track characteristics, while Ferrari and Mercedes seek to capitalize on circuits that play to their car's specific strengths, particularly on smoother tracks or in colder conditions. The strategic use of tire compounds, especially with Pirelli's new allocations, will be a critical factor in determining race outcomes and championship points.

What's next:

The championship battle is far from over. Piastri will need to regain his earlier season form to fend off Norris and Verstappen. The tactical decisions made by teams regarding car setup and tire strategy will be pivotal. Fans can anticipate a thrilling conclusion to the season, with each Grand Prix offering the potential for significant shifts in the standings and a dramatic fight for the ultimate prize.