Alonso backs Antonelli for Monza podium despite back-of-grid start

Mercedes made the calculated call to give Kimi Antonelli a fifth power unit at his home race in Monza, sending the 19-year-old to the back of the grid. The bet: a fresh, powerful 2026 Mercedes engine will let him slice through the field on Monza's long straights and limit the damage to his title campaign.

Why it matters:

With the championship battle tightening, every point matters for Antonelli. Mercedes believes the strength of its 2026 power unit outweighs the estimated 20-second race-time loss of a back-of-grid start. Fernando Alonso certainly thinks so — the Aston Martin veteran predicts a podium for the young Italian.

The details:

• Alonso's prediction: "Top three. There are a lot of straights, so it is good for him."
• Friday practice backed that optimism: George Russell led FP2, with Mercedes setting the tone.
• GPS data shows Russell's Mercedes was around 5km/h faster than the Ferraris across three of Monza's four long straights.
• The exception: the run to Parabolica, where Ferrari was 5-6km/h quicker — a sign of different energy deployment through Ascari.
• Ferrari's upgraded power unit is a concern. Antonelli noted: "Ferrari definitely took a step forward with the new engine and now the speeds are the same."
• Lewis Hamilton, struggling with the deficit: "I was losing something like six tenths to George, just in the straights."

What's next:

Antonelli must overcome at least one Ferrari — Charles Leclerc or Hamilton — to join Russell on the podium. Mercedes deputy team principal Bradley Lord is more cautious, targeting "solid points-paying positions" and hoping for a change of luck with safety cars after recent VSC misfortune.