Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull Future: Clear Targets, But Time May Be Running Out

Yuki Tsunoda acknowledges that his path to retaining a Red Bull seat is “quite clear,” as decisions regarding the 2026 F1 line-ups draw nearer. With Red Bull’s driver program boss Helmut Marko hinting at a finalization by October, Tsunoda understands that strong performances, reminiscent of his Baku outing, are essential to keep his aspirations alive. However, after failing to replicate that momentum in Singapore, Formula E driver Sam Bird suggests it's merely a “matter of time” before Tsunoda departs from the Red Bull setup.

Why it matters:

• Securing a spot within the highly competitive Red Bull hierarchy is a career-defining moment for any F1 driver.
• Tsunoda’s ability to consistently deliver top-tier performances will not only determine his Red Bull future but could also influence the broader driver market for 2026, especially given the influx of new regulations.
• The intense pressure at Red Bull often sees drivers quickly replaced if they cannot match the pace of their teammates or meet performance expectations, making every race crucial for Tsunoda.

The Details:

• Tsunoda’s impressive sixth-place finish at the Baku City Circuit provided a timely boost for the Japanese driver, who has faced consistent pressure in a challenging experience with the senior team.
• Recent Performance Dip: His P15 in qualifying and P12 finish in Singapore did not meet expectations, drawing critical commentary.
• Sam Bird's Prediction: Formula E racer Sam Bird stated on the BBC Chequered Flag podcast that it’s “only a matter of time now before he vacates that seat,” suggesting a 'when,' not 'if,' scenario.
• Red Bull Targets: Ahead of the Singapore GP, Tsunoda articulated his understanding of the expectations, emphasizing that performances like his P6 in Baku, achieved without significant luck, are the benchmark.
  • He noted improvements in the second half of the season, consistently reaching Q3 and scoring points, indicating a “right direction.”
  • Tsunoda believes that increased confidence and a better understanding of the car are contributing to his progress.

Between the lines:

• Mekies' Influence: Tsunoda revealed that former Racing Bulls boss Laurent Mekies, now Red Bull Racing chief, has significantly helped him re-discover specific car setups that he used to employ at VCARB.
  • This input has made the Red Bull car feel “much more familiar” and has improved his connection with the vehicle, suggesting a direct impact on his recent improved performance trend.
• Internal Competition: While Tsunoda focuses on his current performance, Red Bull’s driver pipeline remains active. Isack Hadjar has emerged as a strong contender to partner Verstappen, and other young talents like Arvid Lindblad and Alex Dunne are linked to seats at Racing Bulls, intensifying the competition for Tsunoda and Liam Lawson.

What's next:

• The upcoming decision, expected by October, will be a critical juncture for Tsunoda’s F1 career.
• His ability to deliver consistent, strong results in the remaining races will be paramount to proving his worth and securing his place, either at Red Bull or Racing Bulls, for the 2026 season.
• Should he fail to meet these targets, Red Bull has a strong cadre of junior drivers ready to step in, making every session a high-stakes audition for Tsunoda.