Why McLaren Cannot Match Red Bull's Late-Season Upgrades

McLaren has prioritized its 2026 car development, opting against the late-season upgrade push seen from Red Bull. Team principal Andrea Stella indicated that continuing 2025 car development at Red Bull's pace would have "heavily compromised" their 2026 project, a decision driven by McLaren's long-term championship aspirations.

Why it matters:

McLaren's strategic choice highlights a fundamental dilemma for F1 teams: balancing current season performance with future championship ambitions. While Red Bull continues to refine its 2025 car, McLaren's decision to shift resources fully to 2026 signals a commitment to a future championship challenge, potentially at the expense of maximizing current results.

The Details:

• Red Bull's Aggressive Upgrades: Red Bull introduced a significant stream of upgrades post-summer break, including a new front wing and floor at Monza and further modifications to its floor and engine cover for the Mexican Grand Prix. These updates have transformed Max Verstappen's performance, leading to three wins in four races.
• Cost of Red Bull's Strategy: Red Bull acknowledges that its focus on 2025 has come at a "cost" for its 2026 project. However, the team justifies this by needing to validate development tools and methodologies, which can benefit future car designs.
• McLaren's Stance: In contrast, McLaren has not introduced a major upgrade since July's British Grand Prix, when a "complete floor" revision was implemented. Andrea Stella confirmed that continued 2025 development would severely impact their 2026 car.
• Aerodynamic Maturity: Stella noted that McLaren's 2025 car had reached an aerodynamic plateau, meaning further development yielded diminishing returns. This contrasts with Red Bull, which may have had more room for efficient 2025 development early in the season due to initial car struggles.
• Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions (ATR): McLaren faces stricter ATR limits than Red Bull due to its superior performance in 2024 (winning the Constructors' Championship) and leading the standings at the mid-season reset. This limits their wind tunnel and CFD time, making inefficient 2025 development even more costly.
• Resource Allocation: McLaren operates under a single budget for CFD and aerodynamic wind tunnel testing for both current and future cars. Given the diminishing returns on 2025 development, shifting resources to 2026 where "every week we add a lot of downforce" is a logical choice.

The Big Picture:

This divergence in strategy underscores the unique challenges faced by top F1 teams. Red Bull, after some early-season complaints, saw an opportunity to validate development while pursuing immediate success. McLaren, having matured its 2025 package, opted for a long-term play, prioritizing the significant rule changes coming in 2026. This decision reflects a calculated risk by McLaren to build a competitive foundation for future championships, rather than chasing marginal gains in a season where they are already performing strongly.

What's next:

McLaren's focus on the 2026 regulations suggests they are aiming for a strong start to the new era of Formula 1. Their strategic sacrifice of late-season 2025 development could pay dividends if their 2026 car proves to be a front-runner, potentially enabling them to challenge for a championship in the future. The effectiveness of Red Bull's approach, however, will be gauged by their 2026 performance, which could be impacted by the resources diverted to their 2025 car.