Why Max Verstappen and Red Bull Should Not Be Counted Out

Despite a dismal start to the 2026 season with a sixth-place finish in Australia and a lackluster performance in China, it is far too early to write off Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing. The team has a proven history of rapid turnarounds, and the current issues appear centered on the new RB22 chassis rather than a fundamental power unit flaw, offering a clearer path to recovery.

Why it matters:

Red Bull's struggle challenges the preseason narrative and proves the new regulations have truly shaken up the competitive order. However, dismissing a team with Red Bull's resources, engineering prowess, and a four-time champion driver after just two races ignores the volatile nature of Formula 1 development, especially in a new regulatory era. Their ability to bounce back will be a critical test of the team's revamped structure under Laurent Mekies.

The details:

• The mood shift between Australia and China was stark. Initial cautious optimism in Shanghai gave way to what Verstappen described as a complete lack of pace, grip, and tire management.
• Verstappen's unusually blunt criticism post-race highlighted the severity of the issues but was not seen as an attack on the team. As Mercedes' Toto Wolff noted, it was simply an honest assessment of a "horror show" weekend.
• A key reason for optimism is the identified source of the problem. Verstappen pointed to the car, not the engine, as the primary culprit. A fundamental power unit issue would represent a far more alarming and less fixable scenario mid-season.
• The team's history is a major factor. Last season, Red Bull engineered a major competitive turnaround after the summer break, transforming their car and keeping Verstappen in title contention against the odds.
• Internal unity appears strong. Following leadership changes last year, the team is described as more unified, with Verstappen and team principal Laurent Mekies aligned. Mekies's engineering-focused, analytical approach is considered well-suited to navigating this crisis.

What's next:

The pressure is immense, but the roadmap is clearer than the results suggest. The enforced break in April provides a critical development window.

• The focus will be on understanding and fixing the RB22's core aerodynamic and handling deficiencies, with the team likely to bring significant upgrades as soon as possible.
• The differing characteristics of the opening circuits (challenging Melbourne vs. favorable Shanghai) mean the true picture of Red Bull's baseline performance is still emerging. Upcoming races on more conventional tracks will provide a better benchmark.
• Given their proven capacity for in-season development, it would not be surprising to see a markedly more competitive Red Bull after the European season begins. Counting out Verstappen and a team with their record has historically been a mistake.