Which F1 races are at risk? A breakdown of current calendar contracts

The Formula 1 calendar is a constantly evolving landscape, with new venues joining and existing ones fighting to retain their place. The recent announcement of Portimao's return for 2027-2028 highlights this fluidity, putting the spotlight on which current Grands Prix have their futures secured and which face an uncertain path beyond their current deals.

Why it matters:

Understanding the contract landscape is key to predicting the future shape of the F1 calendar. As Liberty Media seeks to maximize revenue and global reach, historic European circuits often find themselves in direct competition with lucrative new venues in emerging markets and city street circuits. The expiration dates reveal which races are on solid ground and which may need to negotiate fiercely to survive.

The Details:

A clear tiered structure emerges from the contract expiries, outlining the immediate pressure points and long-term certainties on the schedule.

• The Immediate Pressure (2025-2026): The most imminent changes are already confirmed. The Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix at Imola will depart after 2025. For 2026, both the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona and the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort have contracts ending, with Portimao widely reported as the direct replacement for the latter.
• The Mid-Term Horizon (2027-2028): The Las Vegas Grand Prix, having been extended from an initial 2025 deal, is currently locked in only until 2027. The circuits in Singapore, Mexico City, and the returning Portimao have deals running through 2028.
• Long-Term Security (2029-2035+): A large bloc of races have secured their medium-term futures. Iconic venues like Japan's Suzuka (2029), Monza and Spa (2031—though Spa will rotate off in 2028 and 2030), and Britain's Silverstone (2034) are safe. Newcomers like Madrid, debuting in 2026, have long-term vision with a contract to 2035, matching stalwarts Canada and Monaco.
• The Fortresses (2036-2041): Several events have secured what amounts to generational security. The season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix is contracted until 2036, while the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne runs to 2037. The most extreme commitments are to the Miami Grand Prix and the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring, both of which are confirmed on the calendar until at least 2041.

The Big Picture:

The contract lengths paint a picture of F1's strategic priorities. Races in key growth markets (USA, Middle East) and historic, commercially robust European events (Silverstone, Monza) have been rewarded with exceptionally long deals. This creates a stable core for the calendar. The pressure is instead felt by traditional European circuits without the same financial backing or by those in markets where F1 is exploring alternatives, as seen with Barcelona and Madrid. The rotational model, tested with Spa, may become a more common tool for balancing heritage with commercial expansion.

What's next:

Attention will now turn to the negotiation periods for circuits with deals ending in the next few years. Barcelona will be a key watchpoint as it aims to prove its value alongside the incoming Madrid race. The future of Las Vegas beyond 2027 will also be a major commercial story. For fans, the evolving calendar means the mix of classic circuits and modern spectacles will continue to shift, with the guarantee of stability for the sport's most iconic and lucrative events.