Verstappen's Title Chase: Can Numbers Decide the F1 Championship?

Max Verstappen is rapidly closing the gap on Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the 2025 F1 Drivers' Championship. After a strong winning streak, the Red Bull driver is now within 40 points of leader Piastri, with Norris just 14 points ahead of Verstappen in second place. Verstappen acknowledges the opportunity but emphasizes that consistent strong performances are crucial to securing his fifth consecutive title.

Why it matters:

Verstappen's relentless pursuit adds an intense layer of unpredictability to the remaining F1 season. The championship, initially dominated by McLaren, is now a three-way battle that could see the title decided by the slimmest of margins, keeping fans on the edge of their seats.

By the numbers:

• Hypothetical Clean Sweep: A Formula1.com analysis revealed that even if Verstappen were to win every remaining Grand Prix and both Sprint races, with Piastri and Norris consistently finishing second and third, Piastri would still narrowly win the championship by just three points.
• Verstappen's Track Record: The Dutchman has a proven record at upcoming tracks, with multiple victories in Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. He also won one of the two Las Vegas Grand Prix editions in 2023, suggesting his strong run could realistically continue.
• Piastri and Norris's Performance: In contrast, Piastri's only Sprint wins are from Qatar, and his best Mexico finish is P8. Norris has historically performed well in Abu Dhabi and Sao Paulo but is yet to win in Mexico City.
• Post-Summer Break Momentum: Since the summer break (across Zandvoort, Monza, Baku, Singapore, and Austin), Verstappen has averaged 23.8 points per weekend, significantly higher than Piastri's 12.4 and Norris's 11.4.
  • If this trend continues, Verstappen would finish with 426 points, comfortably taking the championship by 20 points over Piastri, with Norris 39 points behind.
• Average Finishing Positions: Over the same five rounds, Verstappen's average finishing position is 3.3, consistently on the podium. Norris and Piastri trail at 5.9 and 7.6, respectively.

The details:

Verstappen faced a setback in yesterday's qualifying session in Mexico, securing only P5 due to a lack of grip and bottoming issues. Piastri fared worse, finishing P7, despite McLaren understanding the issues but struggling to explain their sudden rise or find a solution. McLaren team boss Andrea Stella denied any technical issue with Piastri's car.

Meanwhile, Norris delivered an exceptional performance, taming his 'tricky to drive' McLaren to fly to pole position for today's race in Mexico, demonstrating his ability to extract maximum performance even when the car is challenging.

What's next:

The data clearly shows Verstappen's surging form, but the McLaren duo still holds enough advantage to make the final rounds highly unpredictable. The championship remains finely balanced, with every race weekend from Mexico to Abu Dhabi holding the potential to entirely reshape the title battle.