Max Verstappen's increasingly certain stay at Red Bull for the 2026 Formula 1 season is poised to significantly impact the driver market, especially for George Russell. While this might seem obvious, Verstappen remaining with a new-engined Red Bull until at least 2027 is precisely what Russell deserves.
Why it matters
This scenario would allow Russell to finally enter a season as the undisputed leader of a Mercedes team that is genuinely contending for a championship. A new Mercedes deal for Russell is a foregone conclusion, with only the duration of the contract remaining a point of discussion. The 2026 regulations reset is the most crucial aspect here.
Russell's Journey
Russell has previously won races in the best car, and also lost some. However, he has only spent one F1 weekend in a truly championship-contending car – as Lewis Hamilton's stand-in in the Mercedes W11 at the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix. His full-time arrival at Mercedes coincided with the team's downturn, denying him an immediate 'silver spoon' scenario.
Russell has consistently delivered, effectively matching Hamilton's performance. He's widely regarded as being in his best F1 form, especially when compared to rookie Kimi Antonelli, who is still adapting to the series. Russell leads Antonelli 14-2 in qualifying head-to-heads (including sprints), with an average gap of four to five tenths – a dominant margin comparable to Verstappen's at Red Bull.
2026 Outlook
While 2024 and 2025 may feel like holding patterns, akin to Charles Leclerc's situation at Ferrari, the 2026 season offers a real promise. Staying at Mercedes, with clear seniority over his teammate, presents Russell's most tangible shot at a title. The 2026 pecking order is highly uncertain, but Mercedes is widely tipped to produce a game-changing power unit, similar to their success in 2014.
Mercedes technical chief James Allison noted that some aspects of the 2026 regulations will improve, such as reduced end-of-straight loads, benefiting everyone. However, challenges remain, like smaller tires requiring more work and Pirelli's need to develop rubber that performs well at lower temperatures. The comprehensive car reset in 2026 means current advantages can be nullified, and the team's resource and expertise position them well.
The bottom line
If Mercedes delivers a championship-winning car in 2026, Russell deserves to be the primary beneficiary. He has proven his worth for a straightforward championship opportunity, at least for a year, before Mercedes considers other high-profile drivers. F1 is a sport of timing, and this could be Russell's moment to seize the top spot.