Tombazis: Early 2026 F1 Predictions 'Pure Speculation'

FIA Warns Against Premature 2026 F1 Performance Predictions

FIA single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis has cautioned against early predictions regarding team performance for the transformative 2026 Formula 1 season. With sweeping changes to chassis and power unit regulations, Tombazis emphasizes that any speculation, especially concerning power unit advantages, is largely guesswork, and the regulatory shift will initially lead to greater unpredictability across the grid.

Why it matters:

The 2026 regulations are designed to level the playing field and foster closer competition in Formula 1. However, Tombazis warns that the initial impact of these significant changes will likely result in a wider performance gap and more variable results as teams adapt. This contrasts with recent seasons which have seen unprecedented convergence, with the field often separated by fractions of a second.

The Big Picture: Regulation Upheaval

• Initial Wider Spread: "Invariably, a new regulation will have a wider spread initially. That is part of the game," Tombazis told Planet F1.
• Variable Performance: Teams will experience "more variable performance initially, meaning there will be some ups and downs as people learn the new regulations."
• Disrupting Convergence: The new rules are expected to disrupt the current tight pack, introducing variability in both performance and reliability.

Power Unit Speculation Dismissed

Much of the pre-season buzz focuses on power unit performance, with memories of Mercedes' 2014 dominance still fresh. Despite expectations that some manufacturers, like Mercedes, might again lead, Tombazis insists the FIA lacks the data to confirm any team's advantage.

• No FIA Insight: "The FIA doesn’t have access to the people’s horsepower or downforce in the wind tunnel or the exact performance they’re going for," he explained.
• Pure Speculation: "All of these speculations that somebody will do particularly well or particularly badly, I think it’s all just that, speculation." This lack of concrete data means the FIA cannot validate claims about which teams might lead or lag, underscoring the uncertainty of the 2026 pecking order.

Steep Learning Curve for Newcomers

The 2026 grid will also see new entries, with Audi transitioning to a full works outfit and Cadillac joining as a new franchise with Ferrari engines. Tombazis highlights the significant challenge these newcomers face.

• Uphill Battle: "Clearly, there are some newcomers... They have a very uphill road to follow and, logically, they will have a steep learning curve."
• Doubly Challenging: While all teams face a steep learning curve due to new regulations, for newcomers, "it will be doubly so."

What's next:

Tombazis's message is clear: any discussions of 2026 frontrunners are premature. The true performance picture will only become evident once the cars hit the track and the new regulations are put to the test.