Mercedes downplays 'favorites' label for 2026 F1 regulations shake-up

Mercedes is publicly pushing back against widespread paddock speculation that it is the early favorite to master Formula 1's radical 2026 technical overhaul. Despite rivals pointing to the team's dominant transition to the V6 turbo-hybrid era in 2014 as a blueprint for success, Mercedes' senior figures insist the playing field is now more level and a huge amount of work remains.

Why it matters:

The 2026 regulations represent the most comprehensive technical reset in a generation, with new power units, active aerodynamics, and a dramatically compressed development timeline. If one team gains a significant early advantage, it could dictate the competitive order for years. Mercedes' attempt to temper expectations suggests a strategic shift, acknowledging that rivals are now wiser to the pitfalls that allowed it to leap ahead in the past.

The details:

• Trackside Engineering Director Andrew Shovlin explicitly rejected the 'favorites' tag, stating, "It is not coming from Mercedes." He emphasized that lessons from 2014 mean rival teams are now hyper-vigilant about not falling behind during regulation changes.
• The 2026 changes are immense: power units will lose the MGU-H and gain batteries capable of deploying three times the electrical energy (up to 350kW), chassis will feature active aerodynamics, and 100% sustainable fuels will be introduced.
• Shovlin revealed the current state of readiness is low, noting, "There is not a lot of car if you came to Brackley now to show you." He described an "awfully short" eight-week window to turn designs into a running car for pre-season testing.
• The cost cap and aerodynamic testing restrictions (ATR) have fundamentally altered the development landscape. Teams lower in the championship, with more wind tunnel time, are no longer at a pure financial disadvantage, putting historically top teams like Mercedes on the "back-foot."

The big picture:

The compressed timeline between the end of the 2025 season (December 7) and the first 2026 test (late January) adds unprecedented pressure. Teams must balance final development of the 2025 car with the 2026 project, all while adhering to a mandatory winter shutdown. Shovlin admitted that while the pathway to Barcelona testing is becoming clearer, the scale of change across the entire car—including a significant ECU update—presents a universal challenge. The mindset at Mercedes is deliberately cautious, operating under the assumption that a rival will have a better car, a philosophy they credit for past championship successes.

What's next:

The true pecking order will begin to reveal itself in mid-January 2026 during private filming days and shakedowns, culminating in the closed-door test in Barcelona at the month's end. Mercedes' public humility is a tactical narrative, but its ability to execute a flawless regulatory transition under the new constraints of the cost cap will be the ultimate test of whether it can reclaim a sustained position at the front of the grid.