Fans predict McLaren will fall to back of F1's top four after regulation change

Despite winning both championships in 2025, McLaren is viewed by fans as the most likely top team to struggle following major technical rule changes for the 2026 season. A recent poll shows Mercedes as the preseason favorite, while the reigning champion team garnered the least confidence among the leading contenders.

Why it matters:

Major regulation resets in Formula 1 historically shuffle the competitive order, making preseason predictions and testing form critical indicators. Fan sentiment, while not always accurate, reflects the perceived vulnerability of a reigning champion adapting to new rules versus the potential of rivals who have been developing behind the scenes.

The details:

• A RacingNews365 fan poll placed Mercedes at the top with 35% of the vote as the expected season leader.
• Ferrari followed closely behind Mercedes in the poll results.
• McLaren received only 10% of the vote, landing at the bottom of the top four teams.
• Mercedes' favoritism comes despite reported mechanical issues during testing, as the team completed the highest lap count and showed promising pace with its W17 car.
• Intrigue also surrounds the potential of the Mercedes power unit amid ongoing technical debates with rival teams.

What's next:

The 2026 season begins in just over a week, providing immediate on-track answers to these preseason questions. All eyes will be on whether McLaren can defy the pessimistic fan outlook and mount a strong title defense, or if the new regulations have indeed allowed rivals like Mercedes and Ferrari to leap ahead.