F1 Driver Market: Ranking the Next Five Most Likely Signings

It’s summer in the F1 calendar, and 'silly season' is heating up as drivers and teams contemplate their next moves. Even with most of the grid locked for 2026, rumors persist. Here are the five most likely driver signings.

1. Arvid Lindblad to Formula 1

Why it matters: Red Bull junior Arvid Lindblad received an FIA Super Licence exemption, signaling a rapid path to F1, most likely with Racing Bulls.

The details:

• The 17-year-old is highly rated by Helmut Marko.
• Recently debuted in FP1 at Silverstone for Red Bull.
• Racing Bulls is his most probable destination, as most of their drivers are out of contract for 2026.
• Has already undertaken a TPC outing for Racing Bulls.

What's next: Given his progress, he is likely being prepared for a 2026 race seat.

2. Valtteri Bottas to Alpine or Cadillac

Why it matters: As a Mercedes reserve, Bottas is actively seeking a return to the F1 grid in 2026.

The details:

• Cadillac, joining in 2026, is a potential destination.
• Alpine has emerged as a strong contender; Toto Wolff confirmed "a few times" talking with Alpine about Bottas.
• Mercedes would release him for a race seat.

What's next: High probability he secures a seat, possibly with Alpine.

3. Max Verstappen to Mercedes

Why it matters: Despite a Red Bull contract until 2028, a rumored performance clause could allow an early exit.

The details:

• Clause suggests exit if outside top four by summer break (unlikely given his current lead).
• George Russell openly stated "ongoing" conversations with top drivers.
• Toto Wolff considers the current lineup "perfect" but acknowledges Verstappen's unique status.
• Wolff gives it "very little probability," yet rumors persist until contracts are final.

What's next: While improbable, speculation will continue until driver lineups are formally decided.

4. Sergio Perez to Cadillac

Why it matters: Perez, like Bottas, is looking for a 2026 grid return, with Cadillac being a strong possibility.

The details:

• Cadillac seeks at least one experienced driver for their 2026 entry.
• Perez is on Cadillac's negotiation list.
• Zhou Guanyu is another candidate due to the Chinese market's importance and his Ferrari connection (Cadillac will use Ferrari PUs initially).

What's next: A strong possibility, especially if Bottas secures a seat elsewhere, increasing demand for experienced drivers.

5. Paul Aron to an Alpine Race Seat

Why it matters: Alpine reserve Paul Aron is gaining significant F1 exposure through multiple FP1 sessions.

The details:

• Scheduled for three FP1 sessions with Alpine.
• Secured an additional two FP1s via a loan deal with Sauber (one already completed at Silverstone).
• Similar preparation strategy to Oliver Bearman's last year.

What's next: A long shot, but extended running allows him to showcase his potential against current Alpine drivers.