F1 2025 Drivers' Championship: Our Writers' Predictions

Max Verstappen's dominant performance at the United States Grand Prix has significantly tightened the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship. The defending champion's sprint and main race victories have reduced Oscar Piastri's lead to 40 points. Meanwhile, Lando Norris has also closed the gap, sitting just 14 points behind his McLaren teammate. With five rounds and two sprint races remaining, our writers weigh in on who they believe will clinch the drivers' world title.

Why it matters:

The 2025 F1 season has become a thrilling three-way battle for the championship, with the established four-time champion Max Verstappen challenging McLaren's rising stars Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The outcome will not only determine the next world champion but also solidify the pecking order between a proven winner and two highly promising young talents.

The Details:

• Lando Norris's resurgence: Oleg Karpov argues Norris has shown significant improvement, especially in risk management. After a DNF in the Dutch GP, Norris has consistently outperformed Piastri, notably in Singapore and Austin, where he capitalized on opportunities and managed races wisely. Karpov suggests his Zandvoort DNF might have prompted a 'reset' that has sharpened his focus.
• Max Verstappen's experience and Red Bull's form: Filip Cleeren highlights Verstappen's unparalleled experience, having fought for the title four times and winning it once in 2021. He notes that Verstappen and Red Bull have demonstrated the ability to win on most circuits, predicting at least three wins in the remaining races. Cleeren believes the onus is on Piastri and Norris to prove their mettle under pressure.
• Oscar Piastri's current advantage: Owen Bellwood emphasizes that Piastri still holds the points lead and has the championship 'in his hands.' Despite McLaren's recent struggles and internal tensions, Bellwood believes if Piastri can regain his composure and the team can manage the rivalry, both the drivers' and constructors' titles are within reach.
• Red Bull's technical advancements: Stuart Codling points to Red Bull's latest floor upgrade, introduced at Monza, as a 'game changer.' This upgrade has allowed the RB21 to operate at more beneficial ride heights, mitigating rear plank wear and delivering consistent performance. Codling suggests McLaren's strategy of letting drivers race has cost them valuable points, and the team needs to be more proactive, potentially backing one driver.
• Remaining circuit characteristics: Jake Boxall-Legge analyzes the diverse nature of the final five circuits (Mexico, Sao Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar, Abu Dhabi), noting that Verstappen has a realistic chance of winning at all of them. He suggests that Red Bull has refined its car, making McLaren's previous medium-speed potency less advantageous.

Between the lines:

The intensifying battle is not just about raw pace but also about psychological resilience and strategic acumen. Verstappen's experience in high-pressure title fights gives him a significant edge, while Piastri and Norris are navigating their first championship challenge. McLaren's management of the intra-team rivalry will be crucial; a failure to prioritize could inadvertently hand the title to Verstappen. Red Bull's recent technical upgrades have clearly elevated their performance, transforming them from underdogs earlier in the season to strong contenders.

What's next:

The next five races will be critical, starting with Mexico, which offers high-speed, high-altitude challenges. The outcomes will depend heavily on car development, driver consistency, and strategic calls. McLaren faces a tough decision: continue letting their drivers race or implement team orders to consolidate points behind one contender. If McLaren continues to 'sit on its hands,' as Stuart Codling puts it, Verstappen is poised to exploit any further slip-ups and claim his second consecutive title.