Bernie Collins Warns of 'Really Difficult' Year for Hyped Aston Martin

Former Aston Martin strategist Bernie Collins is tempering expectations for the team's 2026 prospects, warning it faces a "really difficult year" despite the significant hype surrounding its ambitious project. The arrival of design legend Adrian Newey and a works partnership with Honda for the new regulations has many predicting a surge to the front, but Collins cautions that the sheer scale of simultaneous changes could majorly disrupt performance in the short term.

Why it matters:

Aston Martin is widely viewed as a potential frontrunner in the upcoming 2026 reset, armed with massive investment, a new state-of-the-art factory, and arguably the greatest designer in F1 history. Collins' insider perspective serves as a crucial reality check, suggesting that integrating so many monumental changes at once is a monumental task that could delay their championship charge and create an opportunity for more stable teams to seize the initiative early on.

The details:

• The Hype: The optimism is fueled by two major developments: Adrian Newey joining the team in March and Honda becoming their works engine supplier starting in 2026.
• The Reality Check: Collins argues that the scope of change is overwhelming. "To change all of them together, I think I’m not sure how phenomenal it’s going to go year one," she stated.
• She highlighted that any single one of these changes would be a significant challenge for a team's performance:
  • Changing the engine supplier to Honda.
  • Introducing a new gearbox.
  • Appointing a new chief designer in Newey.
  • Activating a new wind tunnel.
  • Moving into a new factory.
• This follows a recent trend where the team showed promise at the start of 2023 but ultimately slipped to finish seventh in the 2025 season, underscoring the need for consistent development.

Between the lines:

Collins also offered a nuanced take on driver Lance Stroll, who often faces criticism due to his father Lawrence owning the team.

• She defended his ability, suggesting he is "a much, much better driver than some of us give him credit for."
• However, she acknowledged the political complexity, noting his seat is secure "until he doesn’t want to continue" or the team is sold, hinting at potential "political upset" if results don't meet the new project's high expectations.

What's next:

The 2026 season represents a hard reset for the entire grid, and Aston Martin's aggressive strategy could ultimately pay off handsomely. The key question is no longer if they can be competitive, but how quickly they can harmonize their new factory, new leadership, and new power unit. Collins' words are a reminder that even with a genius like Newey, building a dominant team from the ground up is a complex and time-consuming process.