Experience Could Be Liam Lawson's F1 Lifeline for 2026

With four Red Bull-controlled seats on the F1 grid and five drivers vying for them, one driver faces being left out in 2026. The situation is particularly dire for Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda, Isack Hadjar, and Arvid Lindblad, as Max Verstappen is expected to retain one of the senior Red Bull seats.

Why it matters:

Red Bull's driver conundrum for 2026 is reaching a critical point, especially with significant regulation changes looming. The decision on who fills the seats at Racing Bulls could hinge on the need for stability and experience, potentially favoring current F1 drivers over promising rookies.

The Details:

• Driver Landscape: The consensus suggests Isack Hadjar, following an impressive rookie season highlighted by a Dutch GP podium, will join Verstappen at the senior Red Bull team. This leaves Tsunoda, Lawson, and F2 protege Lindblad competing for the two Racing Bulls seats.
• Historical Performance: Racing Bulls (formerly AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso) typically struggles in the initial year of new regulatory cycles before improving as regulations mature.
  • For example, AlphaTauri dropped from 6th in constructors' in 2021 (142 points) to 9th in 2022 (35 points) following new rules.
  • The team has historically peaked in the final year of a regulatory cycle, as seen in 2024 with Lawson and Hadjar securing 82 points for 6th place.
• 2026 Regulation Changes: The radical new regulations for 2026 emphasize the need for continuity and experience within the team.
• The Case for Lawson and Tsunoda: Given the historical trend and upcoming rule changes, a Lawson-Tsunoda partnership at Racing Bulls would provide essential experience and stability, mitigating the impact of a new era.
• Lindblad's Situation: While 2026's blank slate could theoretically suit a rookie like Lindblad, he needs another year in F2. He currently sits 7th in the standings, displaying some inconsistency, despite strong FP1 outings for Red Bull.
• Lawson's Recent Form: Lawson has shown speed but also inconsistency, including a challenging Singapore GP. However, he rebounded strongly in Brazil with a brilliant one-stopper to finish seventh, demonstrating resilience after early-season disappointments.

What's Next:

Lawson's ability to bounce back and provide consistent F1 experience could be the deciding factor for Red Bull. While 2026 presents a clean slate that might tempt teams to blood rookies, the historical performance of the Racing Bulls team at the start of new regulation cycles suggests that experienced hands will be invaluable. This makes a Lawson-Tsunoda pairing a strong possibility, at least for another year, before the driver market reopens more widely in 2027.